Here we are in Week 7 and it is becoming more and more clear which teams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders and which ones are out and out pretenders.
So, let's see who is going to make a statement this time around and who's going to take a step backwards in the wrong direction, with a quick reminder that the Guru is now 46-25 after going 9-5 last week:
Green Bay at Cleveland -- This one should be an easy one to pick as the Browns can't seem to get out of their own way. So why do I get a strange feeling that we could be looking at a repeat of last week's Eagles-Raiders upset? Nah. Aaron Rogers is coming into his own and with Ahman Green back in a Packers jersey to give Ryan Grant some help, Green Bay will keep pace in the NFC playoff race, although it will be closer than it should be.
Packers 23, Browns 21
San Diego at Kansas City -- The Chargers' shot at the division took a major hit with last week's loss to the unbeaten Broncos, but there is no way they're going to slip up against the Chiefs, as long as Norv Turner doesn't have another brain cramp and pull LT on a third-and-goal situation.
Chargers 41, Chiefs 14
Indianapolis at St. Louis -- There is no stopping Peyton Manning right now, especially a Rams team that should have pulled out its first win at Jacksonville last Sunday. The Colts are aching for a return trip to the Super Bowl, especially since it's in the same stadium where they won it all three years ago and this won't even be a speed bump in the road.
Colts 35, Rams 6
Minnesota at Pittsburgh -- The Vikings are going to be involved in one of the games of the week until they finally lose -- which could very well be today. No. 4 has to be running out of magic tricks at the end of the game, and Heinz Field is one of the toughest places to win in the NFL. Pittsburgh is a proud team looking to remind everybody that the title of defending Super Bowl champs still belongs to the Steel City.
Steelers 27, Vikings 24
New England at Tampa Bay -- Okay, so London, England is nowhere near Tampa Bay, and it is kind of funny that the Patriots are named after the band of revolutionaries that defeated the Brits in the American Revolution. Bottom line after watching Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and New England's defense absolutely destroy Tennessee last week in the snow is that the Bucs are playing worst than the Titans. Not really the type of game you want to showcase across the pond.
Patriots 42, Bucs 10
San Francisco at Houston -- The Niners are coming off a much-needed bye as running back Frank Gore had time to heal and he is ready to bust out again like he did earlier in the season when he broke the 200-yard barrier. Meanwhile, the Texans are hard to figure out as they knocked off an excellent Cincinnati team last week but lost to the Jaguars two weeks earlier. Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the game right now and could be the difference in this one.
Texans 28, 49ers 21
Buffalo at Carolina -- Jake Delhomme got lucky that his pick six against the Bucs didn't cost Carolina another loss. The Bills were spiraling downward before they somehow managed to shock the Jets in overtime, but Dick Jauron is on very thin ice and with Trent Edwards out with a concussion, his job will very much be in jeopardy after this game.
Panthers 17, Bills 14
New York Jets at Oakland -- And now we have come across one of those other hard-to-figure out games as the Raiders looked like anything but the Keystone Cops last week against the Eagles while the Jets have dropped three straight. I've got a feeling Mark Sanchez will make believers out of Jets fans again with lots of help from Braylon Edwards and Thomas Jones.
Jets 30, Raiders 14
Atlanta at Dallas -- If the Cowboys want anyone to take them seriously again this season they need to win this one at home against a top-flight team like Atlanta. Miles Austin more than earned his starting spot with his 250-yard effort two weeks ago against Kansas City, but the Falcons can't afford to pick up their second loss a week before meeting the New Orleans Saints in a showdown for superiority in the NFC South. Jerry Jones will be frowning again at the end of this game.
Falcons 24, Cowboys 20
Chicago at Cincinnati -- You don't think Bengals running back Cedric Benson won't be jacked up for his chance at revenge against his former employer? Add to it the fact that Cincinnati is trying to rid itself of the stink of last week's loss to Houston and this has big win written all over it. for the Bengals.
Bengals 21, Bears 10
New Orleans at Miami -- As much as I'd love to make this my upset special of the week, I have to go back to my policy of not picking Miami's games because of my affiliation with the team. But this one should be intriguing as the Dolphins' smash mouth, run-it-down-your-throat style of offense meets the Saints' high-scoring offense.
Saints at Dolphins -- No prediction
Arizona at New York Giants -- Eli Manning began his career as Kurt Warner's backup with the Giants and now student goes up against teacher in this pivotal game for both teams. New York was humiliated in New Orleans and Arizona can't afford to fall any further behind San Francisco in the NFC West. Home field is the difference for the Giants.
Giants 34, Cardinals 28
Philadelphia at Washington -- One team is coming off of an inexplicable loss to an inferior team and the other just saw its head coach stripped of his ability to call plays in favor of a guy who was calling bingo two weeks ago. It was only a matter of time before ESPN and Monday Night Football got saddled with a stinker and this one is it. But Donovan McNabb will prevail with relative ease and make life in D.C. even stranger than it already is.
Eagles 27, Redskins 6
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Much More Compelling Games In Week 6
With the Dolphins on their bye week, the Guru gets to pick every game for the second straight week as I made an exception last week due to the gravity of that Monday Night game between the Jets and Dolphins.
[Quick interlude: Talk about an instant classic! Five lead changes in the fourth quarter? Three touchdowns in that quarter by Miami matching the total given up by the Jets defense in the previous four games? A 130.4 passer rating for second-year Dolphins QB Chad Henne in just his second NFL start? The Wildcat waltzing up and down the field on a Rex Ryan defense? All I can say is it was one of those memorable games those of us in the media will be talking about for years to come.]
Now back to your regularly scheduled program:
Okay, I was WAY off on the Falcons-Niners and Jags-Seahawks games last week, but still managed to finish 9-5 on the week. That makes my overall record 37-20, again having not made any picks in Week 1 because that was my season preview.
Let's get to it, starting with the marquee match up between two of the remaining unbeaten teams in the league:
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints -- These are clearly two of the elite teams in the NFL this year and the story lines are scrumptious. Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey gets to take on the team that drafted him and then dumped him. Drew Brees and Eli Manning wrestle for the mantle of the second best quarterback in the league behind Eli's older brother, Peyton. In the end, this Saints team will make a loud statement with a character building win similar to the ones the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals had last week.
Saints 24, Giants 21
Baltimore at Minnesota -- Like the Saints above, the Vikings will use the indoor home field to their advantage and hand the Ravens their third straight defeat. Jared Allen is playing at a different level than any other defensive lineman in the league right now and will get to Joe Flacco the same way he got to Aaron Rogers two weeks ago. Adrian Peterson has been held under 100 yards in back-to-back games, and after watching Cedric Benson last week break that three-year streak by Baltimore's defense of not allowing a 100-yard rusher, AP is primed to make it two in a row.
Vikings 30, Ravens 20
Chicago at Atlanta -- No, I did not plan on breaking down three indoor football games in a row to start this round, it just so happens that these are the best three games of the week. As a matter of fact, New Orleans, Minnesota and Atlanta are a combined 13-1 on the season. Yes, the Bears were starting to show something before their bye by knocking off the Steelers, but Jay cutler is still too combustible and Matt Ryan has too many weapons at his disposal. I don't know why I picked against the Falcons last week but I will not make the same mistake twice.
Falcons 34, Bears 21
Denver at San Diego -- Whenever these two teams meet something memorable always happens, and ESPN and the Monday Night Football or praying their run of quality games continues. Denver has rallied around its rookie head coach, Josh McDaniels, while Chargers QB Philip Rivers has usurped LaDainian Tomlinson as the leader of that offense. I sense the Broncos falling from the ranks of the unbeaten this week in a key division battle.
Chargers 28, Broncos 24
Arizona at Seattle -- This is a must-win for both teams as they try to keep pace with San Francisco in the NFC West. Matt Hasselback's return inspired the Seahawks in a 41-0 rout of Jacksonville while the Cardinals narrowly escaped home with a win over Houston. Seattle wants to reclaim its spot on top of the division and Arizona wants to remind everyone it was in the Super Bowl and had a lead in the final minute on Pittsburgh. Cardinals pull out a victory.
Cardinals 27, Seahawks 14
Houston at Cincinnati -- The Texans own the edge at wide receiver with that beast named Andre Johnson but the Bengals have the edge at quarterback (Carson Palmer), running back (Cedric Benson) and defense and are no pretenders this year, especially at home.
Bengals 31, Texans 20
Detroit at Green Bay -- The Lions put a scare into the Steelers last week behind Daunte Culpepper, and with Matthew Stafford likely to miss another start it will be interesting to see if Culpepper can rekindle some of the magic from his Minnesota days against the Packers. I think not, although it will be close until the final minutes.
Packers 23, Lions 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh -- There is no way Roethlisberger and company put the Heinz Field faithful through another blood pressure test like they did two weeks ago against San Diego, especially with the Browns still in disarray and Troy Polamalu expected back.
Steelers 35, Browns 7
Carolina at Tampa Bay -- This used to be the battle for division supremacy in the NFC South, but the Falcons and Saints are the cream of the crop now in that race. As bad as the Bucs have looked this year, I have to think Jon Gruden is getting a bit of a chuckle right about now, and the Bucs will not be laughing after this game either.
Panthers 21, Bucs 17
Kansas City at Washington -- Jim Zorn has now drawn the wrath of one of the most popular Redskins of all time, John Riggins, and even though reports out of D.C. are that the players are rallying around him, a loss to the Chiefs could seal his fate. Todd Haley has some rope being a rookie head coach and knows his troops had that Dallas game in their grasp. They won't let it slip away this time and will cause a shakeup on the Redskins' coaching staff in the process.
Chiefs 19, Redskins 9
St. Louis at Jacksonville -- Whatever happened to The Greatest Show On Turf? The Jaguars will quickly rid themselves of the stink from last week's shellacking out in Seattle and crush the Rams at home.
Jaguars 38, Rams 3
Philadelphia at Oakland -- Eagles head coach Andy Reid somehow managed to keep a straight face during one of his press conferences this week when he said the Raiders are just an inch away from making something happen. If he meant they are an inch away from sinking to the bottom of the sea, then he might be on to something. The only thing venturing into the Black Hole on this day will be Oakland's pride.
Eagles 42, Raiders 7
Tennessee at New England -- I cannot figure out how the Titans can go from king of the AFC last year to winless despite having one of the league's leading rushers in Chris Johnson . Having to travel to New England to face an angry Patriots team looking to make amends for last week's overtime loss at Denver is not the ideal scenario for Jeff Fisher to try and right this ship. Junior Seau gets a win on Senior Citizen Day.
Patriots 24, Titans 14
Buffalo at New York Jets -- Dick Jauron still has a job after that debacle at home against Cleveland last week? I doubt he will still be employed on Monday after Rex Ryan's Jets take out their frustrations from that Monday Night collapse on Trent Edwards and Buffalo. T.O. will be demanding a trade and Toronto will start backing off its pursuit of the Bills.
Jets 28, Bills 10
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
[Quick interlude: Talk about an instant classic! Five lead changes in the fourth quarter? Three touchdowns in that quarter by Miami matching the total given up by the Jets defense in the previous four games? A 130.4 passer rating for second-year Dolphins QB Chad Henne in just his second NFL start? The Wildcat waltzing up and down the field on a Rex Ryan defense? All I can say is it was one of those memorable games those of us in the media will be talking about for years to come.]
Now back to your regularly scheduled program:
Okay, I was WAY off on the Falcons-Niners and Jags-Seahawks games last week, but still managed to finish 9-5 on the week. That makes my overall record 37-20, again having not made any picks in Week 1 because that was my season preview.
Let's get to it, starting with the marquee match up between two of the remaining unbeaten teams in the league:
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints -- These are clearly two of the elite teams in the NFL this year and the story lines are scrumptious. Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey gets to take on the team that drafted him and then dumped him. Drew Brees and Eli Manning wrestle for the mantle of the second best quarterback in the league behind Eli's older brother, Peyton. In the end, this Saints team will make a loud statement with a character building win similar to the ones the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals had last week.
Saints 24, Giants 21
Baltimore at Minnesota -- Like the Saints above, the Vikings will use the indoor home field to their advantage and hand the Ravens their third straight defeat. Jared Allen is playing at a different level than any other defensive lineman in the league right now and will get to Joe Flacco the same way he got to Aaron Rogers two weeks ago. Adrian Peterson has been held under 100 yards in back-to-back games, and after watching Cedric Benson last week break that three-year streak by Baltimore's defense of not allowing a 100-yard rusher, AP is primed to make it two in a row.
Vikings 30, Ravens 20
Chicago at Atlanta -- No, I did not plan on breaking down three indoor football games in a row to start this round, it just so happens that these are the best three games of the week. As a matter of fact, New Orleans, Minnesota and Atlanta are a combined 13-1 on the season. Yes, the Bears were starting to show something before their bye by knocking off the Steelers, but Jay cutler is still too combustible and Matt Ryan has too many weapons at his disposal. I don't know why I picked against the Falcons last week but I will not make the same mistake twice.
Falcons 34, Bears 21
Denver at San Diego -- Whenever these two teams meet something memorable always happens, and ESPN and the Monday Night Football or praying their run of quality games continues. Denver has rallied around its rookie head coach, Josh McDaniels, while Chargers QB Philip Rivers has usurped LaDainian Tomlinson as the leader of that offense. I sense the Broncos falling from the ranks of the unbeaten this week in a key division battle.
Chargers 28, Broncos 24
Arizona at Seattle -- This is a must-win for both teams as they try to keep pace with San Francisco in the NFC West. Matt Hasselback's return inspired the Seahawks in a 41-0 rout of Jacksonville while the Cardinals narrowly escaped home with a win over Houston. Seattle wants to reclaim its spot on top of the division and Arizona wants to remind everyone it was in the Super Bowl and had a lead in the final minute on Pittsburgh. Cardinals pull out a victory.
Cardinals 27, Seahawks 14
Houston at Cincinnati -- The Texans own the edge at wide receiver with that beast named Andre Johnson but the Bengals have the edge at quarterback (Carson Palmer), running back (Cedric Benson) and defense and are no pretenders this year, especially at home.
Bengals 31, Texans 20
Detroit at Green Bay -- The Lions put a scare into the Steelers last week behind Daunte Culpepper, and with Matthew Stafford likely to miss another start it will be interesting to see if Culpepper can rekindle some of the magic from his Minnesota days against the Packers. I think not, although it will be close until the final minutes.
Packers 23, Lions 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh -- There is no way Roethlisberger and company put the Heinz Field faithful through another blood pressure test like they did two weeks ago against San Diego, especially with the Browns still in disarray and Troy Polamalu expected back.
Steelers 35, Browns 7
Carolina at Tampa Bay -- This used to be the battle for division supremacy in the NFC South, but the Falcons and Saints are the cream of the crop now in that race. As bad as the Bucs have looked this year, I have to think Jon Gruden is getting a bit of a chuckle right about now, and the Bucs will not be laughing after this game either.
Panthers 21, Bucs 17
Kansas City at Washington -- Jim Zorn has now drawn the wrath of one of the most popular Redskins of all time, John Riggins, and even though reports out of D.C. are that the players are rallying around him, a loss to the Chiefs could seal his fate. Todd Haley has some rope being a rookie head coach and knows his troops had that Dallas game in their grasp. They won't let it slip away this time and will cause a shakeup on the Redskins' coaching staff in the process.
Chiefs 19, Redskins 9
St. Louis at Jacksonville -- Whatever happened to The Greatest Show On Turf? The Jaguars will quickly rid themselves of the stink from last week's shellacking out in Seattle and crush the Rams at home.
Jaguars 38, Rams 3
Philadelphia at Oakland -- Eagles head coach Andy Reid somehow managed to keep a straight face during one of his press conferences this week when he said the Raiders are just an inch away from making something happen. If he meant they are an inch away from sinking to the bottom of the sea, then he might be on to something. The only thing venturing into the Black Hole on this day will be Oakland's pride.
Eagles 42, Raiders 7
Tennessee at New England -- I cannot figure out how the Titans can go from king of the AFC last year to winless despite having one of the league's leading rushers in Chris Johnson . Having to travel to New England to face an angry Patriots team looking to make amends for last week's overtime loss at Denver is not the ideal scenario for Jeff Fisher to try and right this ship. Junior Seau gets a win on Senior Citizen Day.
Patriots 24, Titans 14
Buffalo at New York Jets -- Dick Jauron still has a job after that debacle at home against Cleveland last week? I doubt he will still be employed on Monday after Rex Ryan's Jets take out their frustrations from that Monday Night collapse on Trent Edwards and Buffalo. T.O. will be demanding a trade and Toronto will start backing off its pursuit of the Bills.
Jets 28, Bills 10
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Quick Strike Offense
The Guru is going to try something different today, and the main reason is because we are less than three hours away from kickoff of the 1 p.m. games. So this is my version of the no-huddle offense, and I'm even going to break protocol this one time when it comes to the Dolphins.
Without any further delay, let's get the ball rolling:
Cleveland at Buffalo -- Ugh. Two teams headed in the same direction -- DOWN. Playing at home gives the Bills the edge in this never-to-be-seen-in-prime time match up.
Bills 16, Browns 13
Dallas at Kansas City -- Back-to-back losses to two AFC West non-juggernauts? Not in the cards for the Cowboys. Romo will snap out of it and DeMarcus Ware will make Matt Cassel wish he never left New England.
Cowboys 31, Chiefs 7
Minnesota at St. Louis -- Trap game? I think not. This one could get REAL ugly.
Vikings 45, Rams 14
Oakland at New York Giants -- The only thing preventing this game from being the clunker of the week is the fact that the Vikings get to play the Rams. Tom Coughlin would be wise to rest Eli Manning once the lead is comfortable enough and insert David Carr.
Giants 34, Raiders 10
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -- Hmmm. I'm seeing a trend here in these Week 5 match ups so far. McNabb picked the perfect game to make his return and the Bucs will need a M*A*S*H unit to take care of them on their way out of Philly.
Eagles 38, Bucs 6
Pittsburgh at Detroit -- When is this going to stop? Sure the Lions had nowhere to go but up after going 0-16 last year and Matthew Stafford is embracing the role of savior. But the defending champs are angry after their 1-2 start and near epic collapse against the Chargers last week and will take out their frustrations on Detroit.
Steelers 28, Lions 7
Washington at Carolina -- Another battle between two struggling franchises this year. The Panthers have the more talented team and still have a nice home field advantage, and I have to believe Jake Delhomme has gotten the interception bug out of his system.
Panthers 24, Redskins 20
Cincinnati at Baltimore -- Okay. The Bengals are a lot better than we thought they were when the season began, but the Ravens have had their number and are still hurting from how close they came to remaining unbeaten last week at New England. Cincy won't roll over, but Baltimore is still the king of the AFC North right now.
Ravens 30, Bengals 24
Atlanta at San Francisco -- This could be one of the more compelling games today as the Niners definitely are for real and the Falcons are coming off a bye eager to erase the memory of their poor performance against the Patriots. If Frank Gore is indeed 100 percent then San Francisco will emerge from this game with a 4-1 record.
49ers 23, Falcons 21
Jacksonville at Seattle -- The Jaguars are always going to be dangerous as long as they have Maurice Jones-Drew and even though they are traveling across the country they should be able to handle the moribund Seahawks.
Jaguars 17, Seahwawks 9
Houston at Arizona -- Both of those teams are searching for an identity as the Cardinals find themselves looking up at the Niners in the NFC West and the Texans were hoping this would be the year they'd reach the playoffs. Kurt Warner's experience and weapons at wide receiver will win out in this one.
Cardinals 28, Texans 21
New England at Denver -- I'm as shocked as everybody else out there to see the Broncos at 4-0 and thoroughly expected them to wake up and lose to the Cowboys last week, but Tom Brady isn't Tony Romo, which is a good thing for New England. The Patriots are going to miss Fred Taylor but will still have enough to pull out a victory.
Patriots 24, Broncos 13
Indianapolis at Tennessee -- Before the season this game was looked at as the one that would decide the winner of the AFC South. Nobody saw this being the 4-0 Colts facing the 0-4 Titans, and as badly as Tennessee needs this one, Peyton Manning is clearly on a mission right now. This game officially slams the door on the Titans.
Colts 31, Titans 14
New York Jets at Miami -- Usually I refrain from making a pick on any game involving the Dolphins because of my affiliation with the team as their Internet writer, but seeing as this is without a doubt the biggest game of the year for them, I feel compelled to weigh in. Miami leads the league in rushing with an average of 183.5 yards per game and is second on defense against the run allowing only 61.3 yards per game. The Dolphins also found a pass rush and an opportunistic secondary last week against Buffalo and if Joey Porter plays -- it'll take a team of wild horses to prevent him from taking the field -- Jets QB Mark Sanchez is in for a long night. Miami prevails in a close, physical Monday Night classic.
Dolphins 20, Jets 17
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
Without any further delay, let's get the ball rolling:
Cleveland at Buffalo -- Ugh. Two teams headed in the same direction -- DOWN. Playing at home gives the Bills the edge in this never-to-be-seen-in-prime time match up.
Bills 16, Browns 13
Dallas at Kansas City -- Back-to-back losses to two AFC West non-juggernauts? Not in the cards for the Cowboys. Romo will snap out of it and DeMarcus Ware will make Matt Cassel wish he never left New England.
Cowboys 31, Chiefs 7
Minnesota at St. Louis -- Trap game? I think not. This one could get REAL ugly.
Vikings 45, Rams 14
Oakland at New York Giants -- The only thing preventing this game from being the clunker of the week is the fact that the Vikings get to play the Rams. Tom Coughlin would be wise to rest Eli Manning once the lead is comfortable enough and insert David Carr.
Giants 34, Raiders 10
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia -- Hmmm. I'm seeing a trend here in these Week 5 match ups so far. McNabb picked the perfect game to make his return and the Bucs will need a M*A*S*H unit to take care of them on their way out of Philly.
Eagles 38, Bucs 6
Pittsburgh at Detroit -- When is this going to stop? Sure the Lions had nowhere to go but up after going 0-16 last year and Matthew Stafford is embracing the role of savior. But the defending champs are angry after their 1-2 start and near epic collapse against the Chargers last week and will take out their frustrations on Detroit.
Steelers 28, Lions 7
Washington at Carolina -- Another battle between two struggling franchises this year. The Panthers have the more talented team and still have a nice home field advantage, and I have to believe Jake Delhomme has gotten the interception bug out of his system.
Panthers 24, Redskins 20
Cincinnati at Baltimore -- Okay. The Bengals are a lot better than we thought they were when the season began, but the Ravens have had their number and are still hurting from how close they came to remaining unbeaten last week at New England. Cincy won't roll over, but Baltimore is still the king of the AFC North right now.
Ravens 30, Bengals 24
Atlanta at San Francisco -- This could be one of the more compelling games today as the Niners definitely are for real and the Falcons are coming off a bye eager to erase the memory of their poor performance against the Patriots. If Frank Gore is indeed 100 percent then San Francisco will emerge from this game with a 4-1 record.
49ers 23, Falcons 21
Jacksonville at Seattle -- The Jaguars are always going to be dangerous as long as they have Maurice Jones-Drew and even though they are traveling across the country they should be able to handle the moribund Seahawks.
Jaguars 17, Seahwawks 9
Houston at Arizona -- Both of those teams are searching for an identity as the Cardinals find themselves looking up at the Niners in the NFC West and the Texans were hoping this would be the year they'd reach the playoffs. Kurt Warner's experience and weapons at wide receiver will win out in this one.
Cardinals 28, Texans 21
New England at Denver -- I'm as shocked as everybody else out there to see the Broncos at 4-0 and thoroughly expected them to wake up and lose to the Cowboys last week, but Tom Brady isn't Tony Romo, which is a good thing for New England. The Patriots are going to miss Fred Taylor but will still have enough to pull out a victory.
Patriots 24, Broncos 13
Indianapolis at Tennessee -- Before the season this game was looked at as the one that would decide the winner of the AFC South. Nobody saw this being the 4-0 Colts facing the 0-4 Titans, and as badly as Tennessee needs this one, Peyton Manning is clearly on a mission right now. This game officially slams the door on the Titans.
Colts 31, Titans 14
New York Jets at Miami -- Usually I refrain from making a pick on any game involving the Dolphins because of my affiliation with the team as their Internet writer, but seeing as this is without a doubt the biggest game of the year for them, I feel compelled to weigh in. Miami leads the league in rushing with an average of 183.5 yards per game and is second on defense against the run allowing only 61.3 yards per game. The Dolphins also found a pass rush and an opportunistic secondary last week against Buffalo and if Joey Porter plays -- it'll take a team of wild horses to prevent him from taking the field -- Jets QB Mark Sanchez is in for a long night. Miami prevails in a close, physical Monday Night classic.
Dolphins 20, Jets 17
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Sensory Overload
What an incredibly busy two weeks these have been, with cross-country flights, short weeks coming off and leading up to Monday Night Football games and a season-ending injury to the 2008 runner-up for NFL MVP.
So with that being said, this mid-week post will be a lot shorter than my usual posts, and I will start out by sharing the results of my Week 4 picks. I went 10-3 on the week, missing the Denver upset of Dallas, the Jacksonville win over Tennessee and the Patriots holding off the Ravens at home. For the season the NFL Guru is 28-15 for winning percentage of .651, and that is without any picks in Week 1 as I simply previewed each team, division and conference.
Now for a few more quick observations and comments:
* -- The Jets are not making any secret about their desire for 2009 to be the year they make a serious run at a championship, first by trading up to the No. 5 pick in April's NFL Draft to take USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and then today by completing the trade for Cleveland Browns troubled wide receiver Braylon Edwards. Did they mortgage the future for one big shot? Only time will tell, beginning Monday night in Miami.
* -- Completing of 24-of-31 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns is cause for ol' No. 4 to get his name mentioned in this space one time. As annoying as his 'will-I-or-won't-I-retire?' saga was the last two years, Brett Favre still has a very live arm. And his enthusiasm on the field is contagious. He is on the right track with Adrian Peterson to hand the ball to and a great pass rush from his defense to drive opposing QBs nuts.
* -- Here's a little more proof to back up my contention that it is unwise to make too much out of a team's schedule before the season. The Dolphins are still in the midst of what many considered to be their roughest stretch, having opened up against pass-happy offenses in Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Diego. But now all of a sudden their late season games with Carolina, Buffalo and Tennessee don't look all that daunting.
* -- Finally, of the five remaining undefeated teams -- New York Giants, New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Denver -- the Giants and the Colts to me are clearly playing at a higher level than the rest of the league. Peyton Manning is on pace to tie Favre for the most NFL MVPs at three while the Giants are looking like the team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. Eli Manning's health is a concern, but if he is okay I see a possible showdown with Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship.
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
So with that being said, this mid-week post will be a lot shorter than my usual posts, and I will start out by sharing the results of my Week 4 picks. I went 10-3 on the week, missing the Denver upset of Dallas, the Jacksonville win over Tennessee and the Patriots holding off the Ravens at home. For the season the NFL Guru is 28-15 for winning percentage of .651, and that is without any picks in Week 1 as I simply previewed each team, division and conference.
Now for a few more quick observations and comments:
* -- The Jets are not making any secret about their desire for 2009 to be the year they make a serious run at a championship, first by trading up to the No. 5 pick in April's NFL Draft to take USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and then today by completing the trade for Cleveland Browns troubled wide receiver Braylon Edwards. Did they mortgage the future for one big shot? Only time will tell, beginning Monday night in Miami.
* -- Completing of 24-of-31 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns is cause for ol' No. 4 to get his name mentioned in this space one time. As annoying as his 'will-I-or-won't-I-retire?' saga was the last two years, Brett Favre still has a very live arm. And his enthusiasm on the field is contagious. He is on the right track with Adrian Peterson to hand the ball to and a great pass rush from his defense to drive opposing QBs nuts.
* -- Here's a little more proof to back up my contention that it is unwise to make too much out of a team's schedule before the season. The Dolphins are still in the midst of what many considered to be their roughest stretch, having opened up against pass-happy offenses in Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Diego. But now all of a sudden their late season games with Carolina, Buffalo and Tennessee don't look all that daunting.
* -- Finally, of the five remaining undefeated teams -- New York Giants, New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis and Denver -- the Giants and the Colts to me are clearly playing at a higher level than the rest of the league. Peyton Manning is on pace to tie Favre for the most NFL MVPs at three while the Giants are looking like the team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. Eli Manning's health is a concern, but if he is okay I see a possible showdown with Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship.
Until next time, stay thirsty my friends.
AK
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Nearing The End Of The First Quarter
So much can be learned about your NFL team by the end of Week 4 because that means there are only three quarters of the season remaining.
When I was a beat writer covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the early part of the Jon Gruden Era, I can remember Coach Gruden using that quarters analogy quite often in order to keep his team on an even plane. Even if they were winless at the end of the first month, he would say something like, "The first quarter is behind us. If we can turn things around in the second quarter then there's still the second half of the season left for us to salvage something."
Back in 2004, the Bucs lost their first four games but bounced back to win five of their next eight in the second and third quarters. They sat at 5-7 with four games remaining and still were alive for a playoff berth, but in that all-important fourth quarter they went 0-4 to finish 5-11.
In the last two years we saw the opposite thing happen to the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions. Last year Denver started out 3-1 only to go 5-7 the rest of the way and miss out on the playoffs on the last day of the season. The Lions were 6-2 at the midway point of the 2007 season but somehow managed to win only one of their final eight games to finish 7-9 and begin a disastrous run that saw them go 1-25 before knocking off Washington last week.
Now that I have taken way too long to get into my breakdown of this week's games around the league, let me get to my point -- and also toot my own horn for going 10-5 last week to find myself sitting at 18-12 overall (I did not make any picks in Week 1):
TODAY IS CRITICAL FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THE NFL'S 32 TEAMS.
Detroit at Chicago -- No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford would like nothing more than to drop the Bears to .500 on the season and further behind the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North while at the same giving Detroit its first winning streak of any kind since their three-game streak from Oct. 21-Nov. 4, 2007. But Chicago gained lots of confidence from its upset of the Steelers two weeks ago and is an incredible last-second TD pass from Minnesota's No. 4 to Greg Lewis against San Francisco away from being tied for first in the division. The field conditions at Soldier Field already have Lions kicker Chris Hanson concerned, but this one will not come down to the kickers.
Bears 21, Lions 10
Cincinnati at Cleveland -- The Bengals are for real and one blown coverage away from being tied with the Baltimore Ravens at 3-0 on top of the AFC North. Cincinnati's two wins are over a strong Green Bay Packers team and the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Browns are in complete disarray as Brady Quinn has been benched in favor of Derek Anderson in an attempt to provide a spark to the division cellar dwellers. Look for the Bengals behind Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco to keep the heat on Baltimore with an important win by the lake.
Bengals 27, Browns 7
Seattle at Indianapolis -- Peyton Manning is -- well -- Peyton Manning and has found his groove again (as if he ever really lost it). The loss of Dwight Freeney for a few weeks on defense might hurt the Colts down the road, but not today against a Seattle team lucky to be 1-2.
Colts 38, Seahawks 17
New York Giants at Kansas City -- The Chiefs were trounced by another NFC East power last week, the Philadelphia Eagles, and could be in for a more thorough drubbing this afternoon. If the notoriously loud crowd at Arrowhead Stadium can stay in the game then maybe the Chiefs can muster a little energy to hang with the Giants. But Matt Cassel is quickly finding out he's not in Kansas ... err ... Foxborough anymore.
Giants 35, Chiefs 3
Baltimore at New England -- Ah, finally we get to the marquee match up of the week, with all due respect to the battle of the unbeatens taking place in New Orleans between the Saints and the Jets. The Patriots regained some of their swagger by handing the Falcons their first loss in humiliating fashion last week in Atlanta behind the hard running of Fred Taylor, but Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense are loving the fact that they have a potent offense to compliment them. This one should come down to the wire, with Baltimore's Joe Flacco doing his best Tom Brady impression on Brady's home field and pulling out the win late in the fourth quarter.
Ravens 21, Patriots 17
Tampa Bay at Washington -- Oh how the mighty have fallen. Well, maybe they haven't been mighty in a while but the Buccaneers could very well be the worst team in the NFL, going scoreless in a loss to the Giants last week -- at home nonetheless. Washington suffered the cruel fate of being Detroit's first victim and head coach Jim Zorn's job is in serious jeopardy. If he can't pull out a win today at FedEx Field against hapless Tampa Bay he better start updating his resume fast.
Redskins 17, Bucs 9
Tennessee at Jacksonville -- Remember that whole quarters analogy I beat you over the head with at the top of this blog? Well, the Titans are in more of a must-win situation than any other team this week with the Colts almost guaranteed to stay unbeaten at 4-0. Jacksonville showed it isn't about to lie down for anybody by knocking off Houston last week behind three rushing touchdowns from Maurice Jones-Drew and always plays Tennessee tough at home. But Jeff Fisher will have his players ready to play today and they will reward him with the first win of the season, a division one to boot in the NFC South.
Titans 20, Jaguars 14
Oakland at Houston -- The best thing for the Raiders is for this season to continue to go into the crapper so that owner Al Davis finally realizes the game has passed him by and he needs to bring in somebody more capable of putting together a competitive roster. Houston needs a win to save Gary Kubiak's job and will get one today to reach the .500 mark.
Texans 30, Raiders 13
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints -- Could this be the week Jets QB Mark Sanchez comes back down to Earth? Not if Rex Ryan's defense keeps playing like the monster he built in Baltimore before taking over as New York's head coach. That defense will get perhaps its stiffest test of the season facing Drew Brees and the high-scoring Saints offense, and Brees rarely puts together back-to-back mediocre games (he was 16-of-29 for just 172 yards and no TDs in last week's 27-7 win at Buffalo). One team will be 4-0 when the final gun sounds and the other will be 3-1, but both will still be in the driver's seat in their respective divisions. Brees and the Saints will give the Superdome crowd something to cheer about in the end of a thriller.
Saints 31, Jets 28
*Buffalo at Miami -- Chad Henne gets his first NFL start a little bit sooner than the Dolphins would have liked after 10-year veteran QB Chad Pennington was lost for the season to a shoulder injury. Fortunately, Henne has the league's third-ranked rushing attack behind him and won't be asked to sling Miami to victory, and he is facing a decimated Bills secondary. But Buffalo gets running back Marshawn Lynch back and he and Fred Jackson can try to match Miami's Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the ground. The Dolphins desperately want to avoid falling to 0-4 and 0-1 in the AFC East, while the Bills want to keep pace with the Pats and Jets. Plenty of fun story lines to follow in this one.
*Bills vs. Dolphins (No prediction because of my affiliation with the Miami Dolphins organization)
St. Louis at San Francisco -- The Niners let one slip away last week against Minnesota and good ol' No. 4 or else they could be among the unbeatens. San Francisco is looking to stretch its lead in the NFC West and the Rams should be the perfect opponent for head coach Mike Singletary to watch his team get back in the win column. Running back Frank Gore is out but that won't make a difference for a struggling St. Louis team.
49ers 26, Rams 7
Dallas at Denver -- Kyle Orton and the Broncos have reached 3-0 with a fair share of lucky bounces and what at times looks like smoke and mirrors, while Dallas cannot afford to fall further behind the Giants in the NFC East. If Marion Barber can play that will make Tony Romo's play-action more effective and he will be able to hit tight end Jason Witten and his dangerous receivers for a number of big plays. The Cowboys will be the ones feeling Mile High after this game is over.
Cowboys 29, Broncos 21
San Diego at Pittsburgh -- Yes, the Steelers can go back into their own archives to find proof that they can recover from a slow start and still be right there come January. That's how they won Super Bowl XL. But the Ravens weren't as good as they are now and neither were the Bengals. San Diego has the deepest receiving corps in the league, and LaDainian Tomlinson can get healthy fast against the NFL's worst run defense. Pittsburgh pride will be the difference in this one as the 12th man at Heinz Field will help pull the Steelers through.
Steelers 27, Chargers 20
Green Bay at Minnesota -- The long-awaited showdown between the team No. 4 spent his first 16 seasons with and his current team has arrived on the grand stage of Monday Night Football, and no matter how he tries to downplay it as just another game, nobody believes him. Of course his track record when it comes to being truthful speaks for itself, but somehow he has managed to win over his Vikings teammates. Zipping a 32-yard TD pass with two seconds left on a rope while absorbing a hit can do wonders for gaining trust, but this is still Adrian Peterson's team and he will deliver as usual.
Vikings 28, Packers 24
Until next time -- stay thirsty my friends.
AK
When I was a beat writer covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the early part of the Jon Gruden Era, I can remember Coach Gruden using that quarters analogy quite often in order to keep his team on an even plane. Even if they were winless at the end of the first month, he would say something like, "The first quarter is behind us. If we can turn things around in the second quarter then there's still the second half of the season left for us to salvage something."
Back in 2004, the Bucs lost their first four games but bounced back to win five of their next eight in the second and third quarters. They sat at 5-7 with four games remaining and still were alive for a playoff berth, but in that all-important fourth quarter they went 0-4 to finish 5-11.
In the last two years we saw the opposite thing happen to the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions. Last year Denver started out 3-1 only to go 5-7 the rest of the way and miss out on the playoffs on the last day of the season. The Lions were 6-2 at the midway point of the 2007 season but somehow managed to win only one of their final eight games to finish 7-9 and begin a disastrous run that saw them go 1-25 before knocking off Washington last week.
Now that I have taken way too long to get into my breakdown of this week's games around the league, let me get to my point -- and also toot my own horn for going 10-5 last week to find myself sitting at 18-12 overall (I did not make any picks in Week 1):
TODAY IS CRITICAL FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THE NFL'S 32 TEAMS.
Detroit at Chicago -- No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford would like nothing more than to drop the Bears to .500 on the season and further behind the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North while at the same giving Detroit its first winning streak of any kind since their three-game streak from Oct. 21-Nov. 4, 2007. But Chicago gained lots of confidence from its upset of the Steelers two weeks ago and is an incredible last-second TD pass from Minnesota's No. 4 to Greg Lewis against San Francisco away from being tied for first in the division. The field conditions at Soldier Field already have Lions kicker Chris Hanson concerned, but this one will not come down to the kickers.
Bears 21, Lions 10
Cincinnati at Cleveland -- The Bengals are for real and one blown coverage away from being tied with the Baltimore Ravens at 3-0 on top of the AFC North. Cincinnati's two wins are over a strong Green Bay Packers team and the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Browns are in complete disarray as Brady Quinn has been benched in favor of Derek Anderson in an attempt to provide a spark to the division cellar dwellers. Look for the Bengals behind Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco to keep the heat on Baltimore with an important win by the lake.
Bengals 27, Browns 7
Seattle at Indianapolis -- Peyton Manning is -- well -- Peyton Manning and has found his groove again (as if he ever really lost it). The loss of Dwight Freeney for a few weeks on defense might hurt the Colts down the road, but not today against a Seattle team lucky to be 1-2.
Colts 38, Seahawks 17
New York Giants at Kansas City -- The Chiefs were trounced by another NFC East power last week, the Philadelphia Eagles, and could be in for a more thorough drubbing this afternoon. If the notoriously loud crowd at Arrowhead Stadium can stay in the game then maybe the Chiefs can muster a little energy to hang with the Giants. But Matt Cassel is quickly finding out he's not in Kansas ... err ... Foxborough anymore.
Giants 35, Chiefs 3
Baltimore at New England -- Ah, finally we get to the marquee match up of the week, with all due respect to the battle of the unbeatens taking place in New Orleans between the Saints and the Jets. The Patriots regained some of their swagger by handing the Falcons their first loss in humiliating fashion last week in Atlanta behind the hard running of Fred Taylor, but Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense are loving the fact that they have a potent offense to compliment them. This one should come down to the wire, with Baltimore's Joe Flacco doing his best Tom Brady impression on Brady's home field and pulling out the win late in the fourth quarter.
Ravens 21, Patriots 17
Tampa Bay at Washington -- Oh how the mighty have fallen. Well, maybe they haven't been mighty in a while but the Buccaneers could very well be the worst team in the NFL, going scoreless in a loss to the Giants last week -- at home nonetheless. Washington suffered the cruel fate of being Detroit's first victim and head coach Jim Zorn's job is in serious jeopardy. If he can't pull out a win today at FedEx Field against hapless Tampa Bay he better start updating his resume fast.
Redskins 17, Bucs 9
Tennessee at Jacksonville -- Remember that whole quarters analogy I beat you over the head with at the top of this blog? Well, the Titans are in more of a must-win situation than any other team this week with the Colts almost guaranteed to stay unbeaten at 4-0. Jacksonville showed it isn't about to lie down for anybody by knocking off Houston last week behind three rushing touchdowns from Maurice Jones-Drew and always plays Tennessee tough at home. But Jeff Fisher will have his players ready to play today and they will reward him with the first win of the season, a division one to boot in the NFC South.
Titans 20, Jaguars 14
Oakland at Houston -- The best thing for the Raiders is for this season to continue to go into the crapper so that owner Al Davis finally realizes the game has passed him by and he needs to bring in somebody more capable of putting together a competitive roster. Houston needs a win to save Gary Kubiak's job and will get one today to reach the .500 mark.
Texans 30, Raiders 13
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints -- Could this be the week Jets QB Mark Sanchez comes back down to Earth? Not if Rex Ryan's defense keeps playing like the monster he built in Baltimore before taking over as New York's head coach. That defense will get perhaps its stiffest test of the season facing Drew Brees and the high-scoring Saints offense, and Brees rarely puts together back-to-back mediocre games (he was 16-of-29 for just 172 yards and no TDs in last week's 27-7 win at Buffalo). One team will be 4-0 when the final gun sounds and the other will be 3-1, but both will still be in the driver's seat in their respective divisions. Brees and the Saints will give the Superdome crowd something to cheer about in the end of a thriller.
Saints 31, Jets 28
*Buffalo at Miami -- Chad Henne gets his first NFL start a little bit sooner than the Dolphins would have liked after 10-year veteran QB Chad Pennington was lost for the season to a shoulder injury. Fortunately, Henne has the league's third-ranked rushing attack behind him and won't be asked to sling Miami to victory, and he is facing a decimated Bills secondary. But Buffalo gets running back Marshawn Lynch back and he and Fred Jackson can try to match Miami's Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the ground. The Dolphins desperately want to avoid falling to 0-4 and 0-1 in the AFC East, while the Bills want to keep pace with the Pats and Jets. Plenty of fun story lines to follow in this one.
*Bills vs. Dolphins (No prediction because of my affiliation with the Miami Dolphins organization)
St. Louis at San Francisco -- The Niners let one slip away last week against Minnesota and good ol' No. 4 or else they could be among the unbeatens. San Francisco is looking to stretch its lead in the NFC West and the Rams should be the perfect opponent for head coach Mike Singletary to watch his team get back in the win column. Running back Frank Gore is out but that won't make a difference for a struggling St. Louis team.
49ers 26, Rams 7
Dallas at Denver -- Kyle Orton and the Broncos have reached 3-0 with a fair share of lucky bounces and what at times looks like smoke and mirrors, while Dallas cannot afford to fall further behind the Giants in the NFC East. If Marion Barber can play that will make Tony Romo's play-action more effective and he will be able to hit tight end Jason Witten and his dangerous receivers for a number of big plays. The Cowboys will be the ones feeling Mile High after this game is over.
Cowboys 29, Broncos 21
San Diego at Pittsburgh -- Yes, the Steelers can go back into their own archives to find proof that they can recover from a slow start and still be right there come January. That's how they won Super Bowl XL. But the Ravens weren't as good as they are now and neither were the Bengals. San Diego has the deepest receiving corps in the league, and LaDainian Tomlinson can get healthy fast against the NFL's worst run defense. Pittsburgh pride will be the difference in this one as the 12th man at Heinz Field will help pull the Steelers through.
Steelers 27, Chargers 20
Green Bay at Minnesota -- The long-awaited showdown between the team No. 4 spent his first 16 seasons with and his current team has arrived on the grand stage of Monday Night Football, and no matter how he tries to downplay it as just another game, nobody believes him. Of course his track record when it comes to being truthful speaks for itself, but somehow he has managed to win over his Vikings teammates. Zipping a 32-yard TD pass with two seconds left on a rope while absorbing a hit can do wonders for gaining trust, but this is still Adrian Peterson's team and he will deliver as usual.
Vikings 28, Packers 24
Until next time -- stay thirsty my friends.
AK
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