Nearing The End Of The First Quarter

So much can be learned about your NFL team by the end of Week 4 because that means there are only three quarters of the season remaining.



When I was a beat writer covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the early part of the Jon Gruden Era, I can remember Coach Gruden using that quarters analogy quite often in order to keep his team on an even plane. Even if they were winless at the end of the first month, he would say something like, "The first quarter is behind us. If we can turn things around in the second quarter then there's still the second half of the season left for us to salvage something."



Back in 2004, the Bucs lost their first four games but bounced back to win five of their next eight in the second and third quarters. They sat at 5-7 with four games remaining and still were alive for a playoff berth, but in that all-important fourth quarter they went 0-4 to finish 5-11.



In the last two years we saw the opposite thing happen to the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions. Last year Denver started out 3-1 only to go 5-7 the rest of the way and miss out on the playoffs on the last day of the season. The Lions were 6-2 at the midway point of the 2007 season but somehow managed to win only one of their final eight games to finish 7-9 and begin a disastrous run that saw them go 1-25 before knocking off Washington last week.



Now that I have taken way too long to get into my breakdown of this week's games around the league, let me get to my point -- and also toot my own horn for going 10-5 last week to find myself sitting at 18-12 overall (I did not make any picks in Week 1):



TODAY IS CRITICAL FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THE NFL'S 32 TEAMS.



Detroit at Chicago -- No. 1 overall draft pick Matthew Stafford would like nothing more than to drop the Bears to .500 on the season and further behind the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North while at the same giving Detroit its first winning streak of any kind since their three-game streak from Oct. 21-Nov. 4, 2007. But Chicago gained lots of confidence from its upset of the Steelers two weeks ago and is an incredible last-second TD pass from Minnesota's No. 4 to Greg Lewis against San Francisco away from being tied for first in the division. The field conditions at Soldier Field already have Lions kicker Chris Hanson concerned, but this one will not come down to the kickers.



Bears 21, Lions 10



Cincinnati at Cleveland -- The Bengals are for real and one blown coverage away from being tied with the Baltimore Ravens at 3-0 on top of the AFC North. Cincinnati's two wins are over a strong Green Bay Packers team and the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Browns are in complete disarray as Brady Quinn has been benched in favor of Derek Anderson in an attempt to provide a spark to the division cellar dwellers. Look for the Bengals behind Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco to keep the heat on Baltimore with an important win by the lake.



Bengals 27, Browns 7



Seattle at Indianapolis -- Peyton Manning is -- well -- Peyton Manning and has found his groove again (as if he ever really lost it). The loss of Dwight Freeney for a few weeks on defense might hurt the Colts down the road, but not today against a Seattle team lucky to be 1-2.



Colts 38, Seahawks 17



New York Giants at Kansas City -- The Chiefs were trounced by another NFC East power last week, the Philadelphia Eagles, and could be in for a more thorough drubbing this afternoon. If the notoriously loud crowd at Arrowhead Stadium can stay in the game then maybe the Chiefs can muster a little energy to hang with the Giants. But Matt Cassel is quickly finding out he's not in Kansas ... err ... Foxborough anymore.



Giants 35, Chiefs 3



Baltimore at New England -- Ah, finally we get to the marquee match up of the week, with all due respect to the battle of the unbeatens taking place in New Orleans between the Saints and the Jets. The Patriots regained some of their swagger by handing the Falcons their first loss in humiliating fashion last week in Atlanta behind the hard running of Fred Taylor, but Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense are loving the fact that they have a potent offense to compliment them. This one should come down to the wire, with Baltimore's Joe Flacco doing his best Tom Brady impression on Brady's home field and pulling out the win late in the fourth quarter.



Ravens 21, Patriots 17



Tampa Bay at Washington -- Oh how the mighty have fallen. Well, maybe they haven't been mighty in a while but the Buccaneers could very well be the worst team in the NFL, going scoreless in a loss to the Giants last week -- at home nonetheless. Washington suffered the cruel fate of being Detroit's first victim and head coach Jim Zorn's job is in serious jeopardy. If he can't pull out a win today at FedEx Field against hapless Tampa Bay he better start updating his resume fast.



Redskins 17, Bucs 9



Tennessee at Jacksonville -- Remember that whole quarters analogy I beat you over the head with at the top of this blog? Well, the Titans are in more of a must-win situation than any other team this week with the Colts almost guaranteed to stay unbeaten at 4-0. Jacksonville showed it isn't about to lie down for anybody by knocking off Houston last week behind three rushing touchdowns from Maurice Jones-Drew and always plays Tennessee tough at home. But Jeff Fisher will have his players ready to play today and they will reward him with the first win of the season, a division one to boot in the NFC South.



Titans 20, Jaguars 14



Oakland at Houston -- The best thing for the Raiders is for this season to continue to go into the crapper so that owner Al Davis finally realizes the game has passed him by and he needs to bring in somebody more capable of putting together a competitive roster. Houston needs a win to save Gary Kubiak's job and will get one today to reach the .500 mark.



Texans 30, Raiders 13



New York Jets at New Orleans Saints -- Could this be the week Jets QB Mark Sanchez comes back down to Earth? Not if Rex Ryan's defense keeps playing like the monster he built in Baltimore before taking over as New York's head coach. That defense will get perhaps its stiffest test of the season facing Drew Brees and the high-scoring Saints offense, and Brees rarely puts together back-to-back mediocre games (he was 16-of-29 for just 172 yards and no TDs in last week's 27-7 win at Buffalo). One team will be 4-0 when the final gun sounds and the other will be 3-1, but both will still be in the driver's seat in their respective divisions. Brees and the Saints will give the Superdome crowd something to cheer about in the end of a thriller.



Saints 31, Jets 28



*Buffalo at Miami -- Chad Henne gets his first NFL start a little bit sooner than the Dolphins would have liked after 10-year veteran QB Chad Pennington was lost for the season to a shoulder injury. Fortunately, Henne has the league's third-ranked rushing attack behind him and won't be asked to sling Miami to victory, and he is facing a decimated Bills secondary. But Buffalo gets running back Marshawn Lynch back and he and Fred Jackson can try to match Miami's Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the ground. The Dolphins desperately want to avoid falling to 0-4 and 0-1 in the AFC East, while the Bills want to keep pace with the Pats and Jets. Plenty of fun story lines to follow in this one.



*Bills vs. Dolphins (No prediction because of my affiliation with the Miami Dolphins organization)



St. Louis at San Francisco -- The Niners let one slip away last week against Minnesota and good ol' No. 4 or else they could be among the unbeatens. San Francisco is looking to stretch its lead in the NFC West and the Rams should be the perfect opponent for head coach Mike Singletary to watch his team get back in the win column. Running back Frank Gore is out but that won't make a difference for a struggling St. Louis team.



49ers 26, Rams 7



Dallas at Denver -- Kyle Orton and the Broncos have reached 3-0 with a fair share of lucky bounces and what at times looks like smoke and mirrors, while Dallas cannot afford to fall further behind the Giants in the NFC East. If Marion Barber can play that will make Tony Romo's play-action more effective and he will be able to hit tight end Jason Witten and his dangerous receivers for a number of big plays. The Cowboys will be the ones feeling Mile High after this game is over.



Cowboys 29, Broncos 21



San Diego at Pittsburgh -- Yes, the Steelers can go back into their own archives to find proof that they can recover from a slow start and still be right there come January. That's how they won Super Bowl XL. But the Ravens weren't as good as they are now and neither were the Bengals. San Diego has the deepest receiving corps in the league, and LaDainian Tomlinson can get healthy fast against the NFL's worst run defense. Pittsburgh pride will be the difference in this one as the 12th man at Heinz Field will help pull the Steelers through.



Steelers 27, Chargers 20



Green Bay at Minnesota -- The long-awaited showdown between the team No. 4 spent his first 16 seasons with and his current team has arrived on the grand stage of Monday Night Football, and no matter how he tries to downplay it as just another game, nobody believes him. Of course his track record when it comes to being truthful speaks for itself, but somehow he has managed to win over his Vikings teammates. Zipping a 32-yard TD pass with two seconds left on a rope while absorbing a hit can do wonders for gaining trust, but this is still Adrian Peterson's team and he will deliver as usual.



Vikings 28, Packers 24



Until next time -- stay thirsty my friends.



AK